4 Reasons Home Prices Are Likely To Keep Falling

It's been almost five years since the housing bubble peaked, and the bust isn't over yet.

Home prices around the country fell 4 percent last year. They're now down about 31 percent from their peak, according to today's Case-Shiller numbers (see graph).

Last year's declines were widespread: Prices fell in 18 of 20 major metropolitan areas last year. (The two exceptions were San Diego and Washington, D.C.)

More declines are likely to come. Here are four reasons why.

1. There's still a glut of houses on the market.

At the current pace, it would take about seven months to sell all of the newly built houses on the market, and eight months to sell all of the existing homes on the market. In an ordinary market, it would take about six months to sell all of the homes on the market. This excess supply tends to push prices down.

2. Distressed sales account for a huge chunk of all home sales.

Distressed sales include foreclosures and short sales, where the owner sells for less than he owes on the mortgage. According to one measure, distressed sales accounted for nearly half of all home sales in January. These homes typically sell at a discount.

That in turn tends to bring down the prices of other homes, even those that aren't distressed sales. This problem is likely to persist: Nearly 5 percent of all mortgages are in foreclosure, which matches the all-time high. (For more on distressed sales, listen to our interview with Mark Zandi.)

3. Interest rates are rising.

The rate on the average, 30-year mortgage hit 5 percent this month, up from a low of 4.17 percent last fall. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to buy houses. As this morning's WSJ points out, that pushes some would-be buyers to keep renting, which in turn reduces the demand for homes.

4. The government will continue to wind down some of the extraordinary measures it took to support the housing market.

More than 90 percent of new mortgages are guaranteed by taxpayers. This props up home prices by making it easier for people buy houses. This is exceptionally high by historic standards, and will decline over time.

The Obama administration has already recommended lowering the cap on the size of mortgages that are guaranteed by taxpayers through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The cap was raised to as much as $729,750 during the crisis, and is scheduled to fall to $625,500 later this year.

The latest downward leg in home prices started after the end of the another government program — first-time home-buyer tax credit, where the government paid people thousands of dollars to buy houses.

It will probably be a long time before prices get back to the heights of the bubble. A study last year looked at more than a dozen financial crises from the past century, and found that home prices tend to remain below their bubbly peaks during the entire decade after each crisis.

by Jacob Goldstein

NPR - Planet Money



Jay's Real Estate Predictions for 2010

There are a lot of sighs of relief now that 2009 is past, particularly coming from the real estate industry.

But will 2010 be any better?

I have just dusted off my crystal ball... and I can now offer my annual 10 predictions for real estate in the coming year:

1. The residential housing market will pick up early this year, but will dip again after mid-year.

2. Short sales will increase and foreclosure inventory will continue to rise.

3. Mortgage rates will rise and settle in around 6%+/-.

4. Appraisal guidelines will tighten and mortgage lenders will require stellar credit from buyers.

5. A lot of prospective move-up buyers will stay put.

6. Commercial real estate will continue to decline.

7. Builders will continue to be cautious and not in any particular hurry to gain project approvals or begin construction.

8. New construction prices will drop significantly.

9. Prices will continue to decline on higher end properties (over $1.5 million).

10. The terms "communication" and "service" will take on new meanings among real estate agents with the need for more direct contact with clients, such as phone and face-to-face contact as opposed to Internet, email and voicemail communication.

There you have it. Perhaps not the rosiest picture imaginable, but no one said that climbing out of a recession would be easy... or quick. Take a look at the graph below and you will see why. I would put us somewhere between the "depression" and "hope" positions of the graph.

The good news?

A lot of real estate transactions will take place in 2010, despite the market. Reasonable sellers, savvy buyers and service-centered real estate agents will win the day.

Carpe Diem! Make it a great year!

Follow me on TWITTER: http://twitter.com/jayburnham

Real Estate in 2010 vs 2009...Good News Ahead

The Complete 2008 North Shore MA Real Estate Update

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my Complete 2008 Report of how the real estate market fared in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in December and thus far this year? In December, 145 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 148 homes went under contract. That marks the first time in 12 months that more homes SOLD in a single month than came on the market. Unfortunately, this is proving to be common for the month of December as last year and the year before we experienced the same occurence in December and it is likely a result of sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays or waiting until the new year to place their homes on the market.

Except for December, every month in 2008 showed more homes coming ON than going OFF the market. In January, that difference was +150, in February, +188; in March, +226; in April, +262; in May, +199, in June +175, in July +148, in August +99, in September +167, in October +113 and in November +40.

That's 1,767 more homes that came on vs. went off during the year 2008.

At first glance, this seems like good news because in 2007, 2,146 more homes came on vs. went off the market. So 2008 showed a drop of almost 18% in the delta. Unfortunately, upon closer examination we see that the overall number of new listings for 2008 was down by 847, or nearly 17% less than in 2007. Likewise, the number of Under Agreements for 2008 were down 468, or about 16% over 2007. So overall, 2008 was nearly identical to 2007.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area?

It means that we will likely continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will continue to remain there until this trend reverses...but there is "light in the tunnel"...it's just faint.

Here's a recap of the previous 12 months:

In December, 145 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 148 homes went under contract.

In November, 190 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 150 homes went under contract.

In October, 308 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 195 homes went under contract.

In September, 374 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 207 homes went under contract.

In August, 317 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 218 homes went under contract.

In July, 374 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 226 homes went under contract.

In June, 444 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 269 homes went under contract.

In May, 497 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 298 homes went under contract.

In April, 518 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In March, 454 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 225 homes went under contract.

In February, 357 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 169 homes went under contract.

In January, 313 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 163 single family homes went under contract.

The solution? Sellers need to continue to price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As noted above, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will continue to provide updates throughout the year and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards,

Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts

http://www.thecoldwellbankerguy.com/

2007 - The Complete Month-to-Month Market Update

In January, 2007, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that I felt that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my January update (December, 2007 statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in December and thus far this year? In December, 127 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 143 homes went under contract. That marks the first time in 12 months that more homes SOLD in a single month than came on the market. Unfortunately, this is proving to be common for the month of December as last December we experienced the same occurence and is likely a result of sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays or waiting until the new year to place their homes on the market.

Except for December, every month in 2007 showed more homes coming ON than going OFF the market. In January, that difference was +195, in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129, in August +142, in September +236, in October +130 and in November +50.

That's 2,143 more homes that came on vs. went off during the year 2007.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.Here's a recap of the previous 11 months:

In November, 247 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 197 homes went under contract.

In October, 375 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 245 homes went under contract.

In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.

In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.

In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.

In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In March, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In January, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract.

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.

Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of February (for the month of January, 2008) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards, Jay Burnham, VP

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

North Shore, Massachusetts
http://www.thecoldwellbankerguy.com/

Is There a Limit?

Do you have plans to buy a home soon? If so, has it occurred to you that some of the homes you look at may be overpriced? Given the recent history of the real estate market, they may be priced too high for today's market.

How would you recognize that kind of situation? And if you did, what could you do about it? Should you assume that all houses are overpriced and make low offers on all of them until one is accepted?

Relax. There's a way you can become a satisfied homeowner without taking the risk of paying too much. Consider for a moment how prices are set on the homes you'll be seeing.

Some prices are arrived at by the owner's "guess-timation," while others are decided only after thorough investigation of the present real estate market by knowledgeable real estate agents. The latter involves careful study of homes for sale now as well as those which have sold recently. As a result, homes listed for sale with a highly successful real estate agent tend to be priced fairly and appropriately for the market from the very beginning.

Thus, by selecting your agent carefully, you can be assured of having a generous selection of homes from which to choose without having to worry about pricing. You'll be able to focus on the features that fit your lifestyle, and make the process of choosing your next home a satisfying experience.

Knowing Exactly When the Market Will Change

How would you like to know when the real estate market has hit the bottom and prices can be expected to appreciate again? Wouldn't that knowledge be worth a great deal? Well, believe it or not, I can tell you when that will happen. And if you want, I will share my knowledge with you.

You see, it's actually not all that difficult to forecast. The reason for our current depreciating real estate market is simply that more homes are coming ON the market than are going OFF the market. About 19 months ago in the area I sell real estate (the Massachusetts North Shore), for the first time in more than 10 years, more homes came on the market than sold. And this trend then continued for the next three months. That was the beginning of the decline in home values on the North Shore and we quickly went from a Seller's Market to a Buyer's Market. The trend continues today with 404 new (single family) listings coming to market in January on the North Shore (22 towns) and only 209 properties going Under Contract.

So . . . Still want to know when prices will begin appreciating again? Quite simply, when we have three consecutive months when more homes are selling than are coming on the market the trend will have reversed and you can expect the return of an appreciating (Seller's) market.

I carefully track the inventory data every month so that I will know and be ready for the shift. If you would like to be ready as well, feel free to contact me. I am pleased to share the data and with it the knowledge of when the market will change.

Regards,

Jay Burnham