Jay's Real Estate Predictions for 2010

There are a lot of sighs of relief now that 2009 is past, particularly coming from the real estate industry.

But will 2010 be any better?

I have just dusted off my crystal ball... and I can now offer my annual 10 predictions for real estate in the coming year:

1. The residential housing market will pick up early this year, but will dip again after mid-year.

2. Short sales will increase and foreclosure inventory will continue to rise.

3. Mortgage rates will rise and settle in around 6%+/-.

4. Appraisal guidelines will tighten and mortgage lenders will require stellar credit from buyers.

5. A lot of prospective move-up buyers will stay put.

6. Commercial real estate will continue to decline.

7. Builders will continue to be cautious and not in any particular hurry to gain project approvals or begin construction.

8. New construction prices will drop significantly.

9. Prices will continue to decline on higher end properties (over $1.5 million).

10. The terms "communication" and "service" will take on new meanings among real estate agents with the need for more direct contact with clients, such as phone and face-to-face contact as opposed to Internet, email and voicemail communication.

There you have it. Perhaps not the rosiest picture imaginable, but no one said that climbing out of a recession would be easy... or quick. Take a look at the graph below and you will see why. I would put us somewhere between the "depression" and "hope" positions of the graph.

The good news?

A lot of real estate transactions will take place in 2010, despite the market. Reasonable sellers, savvy buyers and service-centered real estate agents will win the day.

Carpe Diem! Make it a great year!

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The Complete 2008 North Shore MA Real Estate Update

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my Complete 2008 Report of how the real estate market fared in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in December and thus far this year? In December, 145 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 148 homes went under contract. That marks the first time in 12 months that more homes SOLD in a single month than came on the market. Unfortunately, this is proving to be common for the month of December as last year and the year before we experienced the same occurence in December and it is likely a result of sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays or waiting until the new year to place their homes on the market.

Except for December, every month in 2008 showed more homes coming ON than going OFF the market. In January, that difference was +150, in February, +188; in March, +226; in April, +262; in May, +199, in June +175, in July +148, in August +99, in September +167, in October +113 and in November +40.

That's 1,767 more homes that came on vs. went off during the year 2008.

At first glance, this seems like good news because in 2007, 2,146 more homes came on vs. went off the market. So 2008 showed a drop of almost 18% in the delta. Unfortunately, upon closer examination we see that the overall number of new listings for 2008 was down by 847, or nearly 17% less than in 2007. Likewise, the number of Under Agreements for 2008 were down 468, or about 16% over 2007. So overall, 2008 was nearly identical to 2007.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area?

It means that we will likely continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will continue to remain there until this trend reverses...but there is "light in the tunnel"...it's just faint.

Here's a recap of the previous 12 months:

In December, 145 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 148 homes went under contract.

In November, 190 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 150 homes went under contract.

In October, 308 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 195 homes went under contract.

In September, 374 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 207 homes went under contract.

In August, 317 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 218 homes went under contract.

In July, 374 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 226 homes went under contract.

In June, 444 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 269 homes went under contract.

In May, 497 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 298 homes went under contract.

In April, 518 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In March, 454 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 225 homes went under contract.

In February, 357 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 169 homes went under contract.

In January, 313 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 163 single family homes went under contract.

The solution? Sellers need to continue to price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As noted above, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will continue to provide updates throughout the year and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards,

Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts

http://www.thecoldwellbankerguy.com/

2007 - The Complete Month-to-Month Market Update

In January, 2007, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that I felt that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my January update (December, 2007 statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in December and thus far this year? In December, 127 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 143 homes went under contract. That marks the first time in 12 months that more homes SOLD in a single month than came on the market. Unfortunately, this is proving to be common for the month of December as last December we experienced the same occurence and is likely a result of sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays or waiting until the new year to place their homes on the market.

Except for December, every month in 2007 showed more homes coming ON than going OFF the market. In January, that difference was +195, in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129, in August +142, in September +236, in October +130 and in November +50.

That's 2,143 more homes that came on vs. went off during the year 2007.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.Here's a recap of the previous 11 months:

In November, 247 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 197 homes went under contract.

In October, 375 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 245 homes went under contract.

In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.

In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.

In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.

In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In March, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In January, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract.

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.

Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of February (for the month of January, 2008) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards, Jay Burnham, VP

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

North Shore, Massachusetts
http://www.thecoldwellbankerguy.com/

The Massachusetts North Shore Update - June, 2007

In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my JUNE update of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston.
The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.So how did we do in June and thus far this year?

In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.

For the sixth month in a row, many more listings came on than went off the market: +255, or nearly double. In January, that difference was +195; in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; and in May, +315.

So, what does this mean?Simply this: We will continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market until this trend reverses.

Here's a recap of the previous five months:

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In MARCH, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In FEBRUARY, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In JANUARY, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses. Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2004 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the one's that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of August (for the month of July) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.