Real Estate: A Bumpy Road Ahead?

Imagine if we only had a crystal ball. Our major financial and life decisions would be so simple to make, and there would be no risk and no worries. Unfortunately, we do not have that luxury. Our decisions must be made upon solid data and information.

Over the past year, you may have heard a repeated message; now is a good time to buy. From the data we have, we do in fact know that it is a buyer’s market, and a good one. A wide variety of inventory is available, and interest rates are still low, making this an unprecedented time for buyers to take advantage of the market, and many already have.

In its latest release, the National Association of Realtors® states, "pending home sales rose in February, potentially signaling a second surge of home sales in response to the home buyer tax credit. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent" compared to the same time last year.

Unfortunately, there are several factors that could impact the future direction of this market, making the road ahead a bumpy one, and uncertain at the very least.

The tax credit has expired and many industry analysts and economists agree that sales will slowly dwindle into the coming months. To quote an article in the Wall Street Journal, on home sales, curb your enthusiasm, "While there might be strong data in future weeks, industry experts have long said that softness could follow once the incentive - essentially free money - to buy is taken away."

We are also uncertain what the Fed will do to interest rates. Rates have held quite steady, but it is anticipated that the Fed will increase them, and to what extent is uncertain. If the rates do increase, it could impact the type and size of home a buyer could purchase. Buyers could be priced out of the market with an increase of rates by only a few points.

Yet another unknown variable is the amount of shadow inventory that could come onto the market at any given time. Shadow inventory are homes that have undergone foreclosure, but the banks have yet to place on the market. According to an MSN Money article, home seizures by banks set a new record and "prices have stabilized in many areas because banks have kept these properties off the market, adding that banks will likely continue to do so until the economy picks up again."

Of course every local real estate market has slight variables. To determine exactly what has taken place in your market over the past month consult with your local REALTOR.

If you’re seriously looking to purchase a property, now truly is the time to buy. Don’t gamble on the future with so many unknowns up ahead.

And f you didn’t have a chance to take advantage of the Tax Credit, just visit NewEnglandMoves.com. There are many homes participating in the Coldwell Banker Buyer Bonus program offering a credit up to $8,000, or speak directly to me and I will be happy to assist you.

Regards,

Jay Burnham, VP

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

North Shore, Massachusetts

Direct Line: 978.233.2828

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Ranks Number One On North Shore

The Beverly, Gloucester, Ipswich and Manchester Offices Catapult Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage to the Number One Slot Regionally (North Shore, MA) in 2008.

WALTHAM, Mass. (January 23, 2009) – Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in New England is pleased to announce its ranking as the number one brokerage in total dollar volume and transaction sides for the combined towns of Beverly, Danvers, Essex, Gloucester, Hamilton, Ipswich, Manchester, Rockport and Wenham in 2008, according to the MLS Property Information Service. The success of the Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage offices in Beverly, Gloucester, Ipswich and Manchester contributed to the company’s regional standing and total sales volume of more than $260 million in these towns.

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage is the largest residential real estate company in New England and has the dominant market share in Massachusetts and in New England*. The company’s Beverly, Gloucester, Ipswich and Manchester offices are home to a combined 137 real estate experts, specializing in residential re-sale, new construction, waterfront and luxury homes.

“Our ranking as the number one brokerage in this area is a testament to the hard work, dedication and high-quality service our sales associates provide,” said Rick Loughlin, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in New England. “In any market, success can be achieved with the necessary resources and tools. Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage remains committed to supporting our sales associates with innovative tools, expert knowledge and varied resources to best serve their clients.”

The managers of these offices, Linda Morey, Alyson O’Hara, Katharine Pickering and Joan Wogan strongly believe that their sales associates’ expertise and local market knowledge along with Coldwell Banker’s national and international presence provide the best possible experience in the buying and selling process.

[* Source: MLS Property Information Network]

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage is the largest residential real estate brokerage company in New England. With more than 4,000 sales associates and staff in more than 90 office locations, the organization serves consumers in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Maine. Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage is part of NRT LLC, the nation’s largest residential real estate brokerage company.



Congratulations to all my colleagues and friends at Coldwell Banker, North Shore! Another great year as number one!

...Jay Burnham, VP

March Market Update: Massachusetts North Shore Housing Trends

In January of 2007, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that it is my belief that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can once again expect to experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my March update (February 2008 statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison purposes.

So how did we do in February and thus far this year? This February, 357 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 169 homes went under contract. Once again more listings came on than went off the market: +188 during the month of February. In January, that difference was +150 for a total of +338 so far in 2008.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area?

It means that we remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses. The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.

Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 or 2006 or even 2007 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are still selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve. I will provide another update again in the beginning of April (for the month of March) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards,
Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts

The December Market Update for Massachusetts

In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that I felt that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my December update (November statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in November and thus far this year? In November, 247 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 197 homes went under contract. That's means that many more homes came on the market than went off - marking the eleventh month in a row that more listings came on than went off the market: +50 more during the month of November.

In January, that difference was +195, in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129, in August +142, in September +236 and in October +130.

That's 2,159 more homes that came on vs. going off since the beginning of the year:

So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.

Here's a recap of the previous nine months:

In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.

In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.

In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.

In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In March, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In January, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.


Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.


I will provide another update again in the beginning of January (for the month of December) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards, Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts

October's Massachusetts North Shore Real Estate Market Update

In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my October update (September statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston.

The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.So how did we do in September and thus far this year?
In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.

That's means more than twice as many homes came on the market than went off - marking the nineth month in a row that more listings came on than went off the market: +236 more during the month of September. In January, that difference was +195; in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129 and in August +142. That's 1,979 more homes that came on vs. going off since the beginning of the year.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.

Here's a recap of the previous six months:

In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.
In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.
In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.
In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.
In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.
In MARCH, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.
In FEBRUARY, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.
In JANUARY, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses. Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of November (for the month of October) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards,

Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts

Is the Market Changing?...Here's the May 2007 Update

In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my MAY update of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in May and thus far this year?

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract. That means that many more listings came on than went off the market: +315, or nearly double. In January, that difference was +195; in February, +135; in March, +287; and in April, +288.

FORECAST: We will continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market until this trend reverses.

Here's a recap of the previous four months:

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In MARCH, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In FEBRUARY, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In JANUARY, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses. Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2004 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of July (for the month of June) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Up or Down?...The March Real Estate Market Update

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my MARCH update of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston.

In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market. So where do we stand so far this year?


In JANUARY, in my 22 town Massachusetts North Shore area, 404 single family homes came on the market and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).

In FEBRUARY, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In MARCH, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract. That's more than TWICE as many coming on vs. going off.

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses. Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2003 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of May and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.