Tuesday, December 28, 2010

My Annual 10 Real Estate Predictions for the New Year

There are a lot of sighs of relief now that 2010 is past, particularly coming from the real estate industry.

But will 2011 be any better?

Having just dusted off my crystal ball, I can now offer my annual 10 predictions for real estate in 2011:

1. Inventories will skyrocket in the spring resulting from sellers who took their homes off the market during the winter hoping to capture buyers in the "spring market" and #2 below.

2. Short sales will increase and foreclosure inventory will continue to rise. The combination with #1 above = huge inventories.

3. Mortgage rates will rise and settle in around 6%+/-.

4. Builders will begin building...slowly, a result of pent up demand for new construction and a loosening of credit by the banks. Many builders have been sitting on land already approved and ready to be built upon.

5. A lot of prospective move-up buyers will continue to stay where they are.

6. The apartment/rental sector will make gains, the result of young Americans seeking escape from family homes in favor of their own living accommodations, but wary of the housing market.

7. There will be no Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There will be lots of talk and posturing, but no reform.

8. Prices will stabilize on lower end properties and decline less on higher end properties (over $1.5 million).

9. The term "communication" will take on a new meaning among real estate agents as ever advancing technology allows for better dissemination of information, particularly on cell and smartphones. Tech savvy real estate companies and agents will provide free branded real estate applications (apps) to clients and customers that are cross-platform capable. (For example... Text: RELIST to 87778)

10. Jobs will remain the key to recovery. According to the chief economist for the National association of REALTORS, with a gain of 200,000 jobs per month, a full recovery will take 6.3 years; with 300,000 jobs/month: 3.2 years; with 400,000 jobs/month: 1.2 years. And if we can find a way to create 500,000 jobs per month...well, we will have recovered.

There you have it. Not the rosiest picture imaginable, but we all knew that climbing out of a recession would not be easy... or quick.

The good news?

A lot of real estate transactions will take place in 2011, despite the market. Reasonable sellers, savvy buyers, and tech and service-centered real estate agents will win the day.

Best regards,

Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore Real Estate, Massachusetts

Follow me on TWITTER: http://twitter.com/jayburnham

Download my free Mobile Real Estate Search App for your phone.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Massachusetts Cities and Towns Need New Deal with Public Employees

Mass. cities need new deal with public employees - The Boston Globe

by Scott Lang

CITY GOVERNMENTS in Massachusetts follow costly, inefficient 20th-century industrial models for compensating their employees. Archaic rules dictate the structure of health insurance, pension plans, and other benefits, and the degree to which these rules diminish our capacity to provide vital services to our citizens may come as a surprise to many of our taxpayers.

The costs to the taxpayers of health insurance and pensions have risen 217 percent over the past decade in New Bedford, and over 200 percent on average across Massachusetts. With limited revenue streams, these rising expenditures represent dollars that cannot be used to put more police officers and firefighters on our streets or to offer our children smaller class sizes by hiring more teachers. Such dollars are instead allocated to pay the rising costs of current employee benefits. Soon, benefit costs will crush local government everywhere.

To prevent that, Massachusetts must examine pensions, benefits, and wages for public employees in a comprehensive way. We must honor the employment covenant that we have made, while designing a new covenant for future employees that will more closely align total employment costs in the public sector with those in the private sector.

After 50 years of gains made through collective bargaining, jobs in municipal government now frequently offer higher wages than comparable jobs in the private sector. This is problematic during a time when all of our citizens face the ravages of this recession. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, when the value of benefit packages is factored in, the total average cost to private-sector employers is $27.49 per hour per employee. In state and local government, the total cost is $39.83 per hour — a 45 percent difference in total cost to our local governments. These are national statistics, but it’s fair to assume the pattern holds true in Massachusetts.

It’s vital that our public labor unions understand that current public employees will only have job security if we can bring government spending in line with revenue; otherwise, as layoffs continue and positions lost through attrition remain unfilled to cut costs, the functions of government will be outsourced to the private sector by necessity. This will further diminish the number of government jobs, as well as our capacity to provide direct services to our residents.

As revenues decline, unions are put in the impossible position of demanding that their contracts and benefits be honored — even if it means laying off significant numbers of their own members to pay for the benefits of other members. Under a new public employment covenant, the unions will once again be able to advocate for all of their membership, rather than be forced to sacrifice union positions in exchange for the status quo.

We can avoid this. The Legislature should create a task force to develop a new public employment covenant for the future. This panel should include members of Governor Patrick’s administration, the House and the Senate, labor, the business community, representatives from municipalities, and citizens’ groups — and should have a broad, frank, transparent discussion about how to develop models of local government that are sustainable in relationship to the revenue that cities and towns can realistically raise. We need to find solutions to contain costs and create designs for appropriate health insurance and pension plans.

These issues are urgent, so this task force should report back to the people by the end of this fiscal year.

We cannot have a strong state unless we have strong municipalities. It is imperative that we find systemic and equitable solutions that will allow our cities to strengthen public safety, revitalize their neighborhoods, and improve their schools.

Scott Lang is the mayor of New Bedford.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Welsh Terrier Rules

Linda and I have two Welsh Terriers...Ozzie and Harriet.  (If you are younger than 39, you probably don't get it.)

If you have ever owned a terrier, you know that it is a special breed and somewhat headstrong.  As a result of our experiences, I offer you the following Welsh Terrier Rules:

1.  The Welsh Terriers are not allowed in the house.

2.  Okay, the Welsh Terriers are allowed in the house, but only in certain rooms.

3.  The Welsh Terriers are allowed in all rooms, but have to stay off the furniture.

4.  The Welsh terriers are only allowed on the old furniture.

5.  Fine, the Welsh Terriers are allowed on all the furniture, but are not allowed to sleep with the humans on the bed.

6.  All right, the Welsh Terriers are allowed on the bed, but only by invitation.

7.  The Welsh Terriers can sleep on the bed whenever they want, but not under the covers.

8.  The Welsh Terriers can sleep under the covers anytime they want.

9.  Humans must ask permission to sleep under the covers with the Welsh Terriers!

10.  In all cases of disput.... the Welsh Terriers rule!


Update 12/23/10: After receiving the comment from Jon Snyder about his Welshie, Fletch, and a certain low growl when being asked to move...New Rule 8A: "Humans must defer to the preferred location of the Welsh Terrier on the bed."

Monday, December 06, 2010

The Best Ever Mobile Real Estate Search App for Massachusetts...and It's Free!

Do you know what the #1 request is from Massachusetts buyers searching for a home?

Unfettered access to complete information about local available properties.

Such information is now widely available from a number of sources including real estate agent and real estate company websites.  That's great if you happen to be in front of a computer screen at home or at your office.  But what if you are out driving around and spot a home you would like to know more about?

You can always call the number on the sign and speak with an agent about the property.  Or if the listing agent utilizes technology, there may be a web address you can visit to get the information.  But of course, that still works best when you have a computer monitor in front of you.

If the listing agent is really good with technology he/she may have a QR code on the For Sale sign or perhaps an Instant Message number and code to text to in order to provide you with the information on your cell or smartphone.  But that only provides information about a single property.  Wouldn't you like to have access to information about ALL available Massachusetts homes in the area?

Clearly the best option would be to have an app that can provide you with mobile access not just to information about ONE home, but about ALL homes available in the Multiple Listing Service Property Information Network (MLSPIN).

Well now there is just such an app, and in a mobile format that is, in my opinion, the best on the market.  It's even better than what I have access to as a member of the Greater Boston and Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

The real estate app I am refering to has been designed to work with iPhone, BlackBerry, Android, Palm OS, and feature phones on Verizon Wireless, Sprint, AT&T and T-Mobile. There is also a mobile web version available, so all carriers, devices and platforms are covered.  The app allows you to search for properties based on your GPS location, address, city or zip code and can search by property type, price, bedrooms, baths and distance from your location.

In a word, it's simply "outstanding".

To download this free, powerful and secure app for your cell or smartphone:

 Text: RELIST to: 87778

Or follow this link online: [click here]

And enjoy!  This app will amaze you.

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PS: You may be wondering how I am able to provide this app to you for FREE.  It's simple.  By providing you with this powerful and useful application, at no cost to you, I hope that if you decide to buy or sell sometime in the future, or know someone that is, you will consider contacting me for assistance.  I consider that a "fair trade", but you are under no obligation whatsoever.