In January of 2007, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that it is my belief that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can once again expect to experience an appreciating market.
Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my March update (February 2008 statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison purposes.
So how did we do in February and thus far this year? This February, 357 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 169 homes went under contract. Once again more listings came on than went off the market: +188 during the month of February. In January, that difference was +150 for a total of +338 so far in 2008.
So, what does this mean in general for our market area?
It means that we remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses. The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.
Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 or 2006 or even 2007 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are still selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve. I will provide another update again in the beginning of April (for the month of March) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.
Regards,
Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts
Saturday, March 08, 2008
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Thanks for sharing such great insights on your market. Seller's need someone as experienced as yourself to guide them through this.
ReplyDelete...Jim Crawford
Atalnta Real Estate
Is this not the truth? Sometimes the hardest part of my job is getting my sellers to understand this very theory!
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Suzanne Zick
Jay: you nailed it. What would be interesting to see in your market is if there are more homes sold this year in the last three months than at the same time in 2007. Like you, we are also showing more new listings every months then sold but we are selling much more then six months ago so perhaps there is a positive side to all this.
ReplyDelete...Lloyd Nichols
SW FLORIDA HOMES