In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.
Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my MAY update of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.
So how did we do in May and thus far this year?
In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract. That means that many more listings came on than went off the market: +315, or nearly double. In January, that difference was +195; in February, +135; in March, +287; and in April, +288.
FORECAST: We will continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market until this trend reverses.
Here's a recap of the previous four months:
In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.
In MARCH, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.
In FEBRUARY, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.
In JANUARY, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).
The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses. Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2004 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve.
I will provide another update again in the beginning of July (for the month of June) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.
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