In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.So where do we stand so far this year? In January, in my 22 town Massachusetts North Shore area, 404 single family homes came on the market and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).
In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.
February was better, certainly, than January, but not enough so that we can say the current trend has reversed. So based upon the statistics thus far this year, we continue to remain in a depreciating (buyers) market . . . and we can expect it to remain a buyers market for at least 3 more months.I will provide another update again in the beginning of April and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.
Regards,
Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts
Hey! I like that analysis. I'm going to run this in my market.
ReplyDelete...Dave Spenser
That analysis is fine for a general overall market view of the North Shore. Might I suggest that the same ananlysis be applied to each indivdual city & town as there may be pockets where it is not a depreciating market but rather a level or slightly appreciating market.
ReplyDeleteI like the analysis also.
ReplyDeleteIt may be a good idea to do a further breakdown. What I mean is... The analysis presented is for a general overall view of the North Shore.
It may be a good idea to look at each city & town in your area to determine the proper market pricing for each individual community, as there may be pockets of price leveling or even an indication of slight appreciation.
Is this a valid observation?
I like the analysis also.
ReplyDeleteThe general overview of market conditions on the North Shore is what is being stated.
It may be a good idea to break that analysis down to each individual city & town in the coverage area to verify that a depreciating marketplace is happening across each market. There could be areas where inventory is such that the area could be level in pricing and maybe even seeing the light of appreciation.
Comments on this observation?
Reply to Kingskid...
ReplyDeleteThe problem with applying this formula to individual towns is that, as you noted, some individual towns may post a different scenario from the overall market outlook. This is particularly true in smaller communities. In order to assess the general market conditions, the data has to encompass the general market area and not be skewed by minor discrepancies from small samples. My analysis covers 22 North Shore communities and provides an "average" that is trackable and accurate for the area the data encompasses. Also, the same data-providing area is reviewed each month in the exact same manner so as to provide insight to any trend that may be occuring.
Regards,
Jay