2007 - The Complete Month-to-Month Market Update

In January, 2007, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that I felt that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.

Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my January update (December, 2007 statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.

So how did we do in December and thus far this year? In December, 127 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 143 homes went under contract. That marks the first time in 12 months that more homes SOLD in a single month than came on the market. Unfortunately, this is proving to be common for the month of December as last December we experienced the same occurence and is likely a result of sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays or waiting until the new year to place their homes on the market.

Except for December, every month in 2007 showed more homes coming ON than going OFF the market. In January, that difference was +195, in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129, in August +142, in September +236, in October +130 and in November +50.

That's 2,143 more homes that came on vs. went off during the year 2007.

So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.Here's a recap of the previous 11 months:

In November, 247 single family homes came on the market on the North shore and 197 homes went under contract.

In October, 375 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 245 homes went under contract.

In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.

In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.

In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.

In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.

In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.

In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.

In March, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.

In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.

In January, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract.

The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.

Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.

I will provide another update again in the beginning of February (for the month of January, 2008) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.

Regards, Jay Burnham, VP

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

North Shore, Massachusetts
http://www.thecoldwellbankerguy.com/

Is There a Limit?

Do you have plans to buy a home soon? If so, has it occurred to you that some of the homes you look at may be overpriced? Given the recent history of the real estate market, they may be priced too high for today's market.

How would you recognize that kind of situation? And if you did, what could you do about it? Should you assume that all houses are overpriced and make low offers on all of them until one is accepted?

Relax. There's a way you can become a satisfied homeowner without taking the risk of paying too much. Consider for a moment how prices are set on the homes you'll be seeing.

Some prices are arrived at by the owner's "guess-timation," while others are decided only after thorough investigation of the present real estate market by knowledgeable real estate agents. The latter involves careful study of homes for sale now as well as those which have sold recently. As a result, homes listed for sale with a highly successful real estate agent tend to be priced fairly and appropriately for the market from the very beginning.

Thus, by selecting your agent carefully, you can be assured of having a generous selection of homes from which to choose without having to worry about pricing. You'll be able to focus on the features that fit your lifestyle, and make the process of choosing your next home a satisfying experience.

Knowing Exactly When the Market Will Change

How would you like to know when the real estate market has hit the bottom and prices can be expected to appreciate again? Wouldn't that knowledge be worth a great deal? Well, believe it or not, I can tell you when that will happen. And if you want, I will share my knowledge with you.

You see, it's actually not all that difficult to forecast. The reason for our current depreciating real estate market is simply that more homes are coming ON the market than are going OFF the market. About 19 months ago in the area I sell real estate (the Massachusetts North Shore), for the first time in more than 10 years, more homes came on the market than sold. And this trend then continued for the next three months. That was the beginning of the decline in home values on the North Shore and we quickly went from a Seller's Market to a Buyer's Market. The trend continues today with 404 new (single family) listings coming to market in January on the North Shore (22 towns) and only 209 properties going Under Contract.

So . . . Still want to know when prices will begin appreciating again? Quite simply, when we have three consecutive months when more homes are selling than are coming on the market the trend will have reversed and you can expect the return of an appreciating (Seller's) market.

I carefully track the inventory data every month so that I will know and be ready for the shift. If you would like to be ready as well, feel free to contact me. I am pleased to share the data and with it the knowledge of when the market will change.

Regards,

Jay Burnham