In January, I wrote a blog entitled "Knowing Exactly When the Market will Change" that received many comments, replies and supportive feedback. In that blog, I stated that I felt that as soon as we have 3 consecutive months when more inventory is going off (under contract) than is coming on (new listings) we can expect to once again experience an appreciating market.Hot off the "Actual Statistics" press, it is now time for my December update (November statistics) of how the real estate market is faring in my area of the country - the Massachusetts North Shore, north of Boston. The area of observation consists of 22 towns on the North Shore and considers only SINGLE FAMILY homes for comparison.
So how did we do in November and thus far this year? In November, 247 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 197 homes went under contract. That's means that many more homes came on the market than went off - marking the eleventh month in a row that more listings came on than went off the market: +50 more during the month of November.
In January, that difference was +195, in February, +135; in March, +287; in April, +288; in May, +315, in June +255, in July +129, in August +142, in September +236 and in October +130.
That's 2,159 more homes that came on vs. going off since the beginning of the year:
So, what does this mean in general for our market area? It means that we continue to remain in a DEPRECIATING market and will remain there until this trend reverses.Here's a recap of the previous nine months:
In September, 463 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 227 homes went under contract.
In August, 405 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 259 homes went under contract.
In July, 442 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 313 homes went under contract.
In June, 554 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 299 homes went under contract.
In May, 655 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 340 homes went under contract.
In April, 550 single family homes came on the market in the North shore and 262 homes went under contract.
In March, 543 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 256 homes went under contract.
In February, 377 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 242 homes went under contract.
In January, 404 single family homes came on the market on the North Shore and 209 single family homes went under contract (off market).
The message: Real estate values will continue to decline until this trend reverses.
Part of the solution? Sellers need to recognize that it is no longer 2005 and price their homes ahead of the declining price curve. As you can see, many homes are selling, but they are the ones that are priced properly and AHEAD of the declining value curve.I will provide another update again in the beginning of January (for the month of December) and we'll take a look and see if the market is changing or if we can expect more of the same for a while.
Regards, Jay Burnham, VP
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
North Shore, Massachusetts
